This is a sobering analysis from Der Spiegel about Merkel’s waning popularity and control in Germany. Other western leaders may suffer a similar fate if things turn out the way they have in Europe. The migrant crisis in Europe and the unprecedented demand for refugee accommodation in the wake of the Syrian War is another true Black Swan event that will strain all levels of public services from social housing, ailing healthcare systems and national and local security systems at a time when government indebtedness is already at historic peaks.
Like the oil price decline, this black swan will hasten the arrival of a bottom in the Kondratieff cycle from which winners and losers will emerge. In western economies, the speed and wisdom with which they respond to both crises will determine if they are among the winners.