October 16, 2015: Trough wars are a feature of the Kondratieff Winter. These are localized wars that may sow the seeds of global conflict at some future date but, because most countries are too indebted at this point in the cycle to seriously entertain major warfare, trough wars, such as those underway in the Middle East, prevail instead.
This article argues that sanctions, a decimated rouble, and low oil prices have forced Putin to use extraordinary means to revive the Russian economy. By injecting himself into the Syrian civil war and sharing intelligence gathering with Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus, he will effectively encircle the oil-price suppressor Saudis in Riyadh,
commandeer most of the world’s oil supplies and secure higher oil prices – the key to survival of the Russian economy.